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WB Changes Forecasts for Azerbaijan’s Economic Growth for 2015
Source: http://en.trend.az/
Source Date: Wednesday, January 14, 2015
Focus: ICT for MDGs
Country: Azerbaijan
Created: Jan 20, 2015

The World Bank has bettered the forecasts for Azerbaijan’s economic growth for 2015, according to WB’s January report - Global Economic Prospects – posted on its website.

The updated report said that Azerbaijan’s GDP growth is expected to be 4.4 percent in 2015.

Earlier, WB forecasted that the country’s economic growth will be 4.1 percent in 2015.

WB expects Azerbaijan’s economic growth to be 3.8 percent in 2017, according to the report.

This is while the economic growth of European and Central Asian countries (among which WB rates Azerbaijan as well) will be equal to 3 percent in 2015 and 3.8 percent in 2016-2017, according to WB estimations.

The GDP growth of Belarus in 2015 is forecasted at the level of 1.8 percent (2 percent in 2016-2017), Armenia - 3.3, Kazakhstan - 1.8, Georgia - five, Kyrgyzstan - two, Romania - 2.9, Hungary - two, Tajikistan - 4.2, Turkey - 3.5, Estonia - two, Lithuania and Poland - 3.2 percent each.

This is while the GDP volumes of Russia, Ukraine and Serbia are expected to drop by 2.9, 2.3 and 0.5 percent, respectively.

The report said that the tension in Russian-Ukrainian relations, imposition of economic sanctions over this tension, the probability of prolonged stagnation in the Eurozone, as well as a decrease in prices for raw materials remain the key factors of the risk for the region.

Long-term growth is constrained by structural factors, including weak business environment and institutions, vulnerability of the banking system of the region’s countries, said the WB report.

WB said that the black ink of Azerbaijan’s balance of payments was 12.6 percent of GDP in 2014, while this figure is forecasted to hit 9.8 percent in 2015, 8.1 percent in 2016 and 5.3 percent in 2017.

WB analysts said that the painful transition to market economy and regional political conflicts in H1 of 1990s led to the sharp decline in economic growth in some countries as Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova. Consequently, the real incomes per capita fell to the lowest level in many of these countries.

However, later the growth of incomes was restored with the money transfers of migrants (from Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Moldova) who found earning opportunities in Russia and Europe and direct investments which promoted the reconstruction of the energy sector (Azerbaijan). With the exception of Kyrgyzstan, the income per capita returned to the average level in 2005, said the report.

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