LTE networks will cover 50% of the African population by 2018, according to new research published by ABI Research on Wednesday.
However, subscriber uptake will be nowhere close to that level.
The number of LTE subscribers in the continent will grow to more than 50 million by the end of 2018, almost half of whom will be able to use voice-over-LTE (VoLTE), the analyst firm reported. With a population of over 1 billion, that still leaves a lot of people using earlier generations of mobile technologies, or without mobile connections at all.
Nonetheless, that 50 million subscribers figure amounts to a compound annual growth rate of 128% between now and then, which is a significant development.
"What makes this exponential subscription growth possible is the increasing affordability of LTE handsets a few years down the road," said Jake Saunders, VP and practice director at ABI Research.
"LTE handset shipments will increase by 75% annually on average in the next five years," he added, noting that poor fixed-line infrastructure means that Africans will depend more on mobile networks for access to the Internet.
"There is a strong business case for mobile operators to roll out LTE early to take advantage of the opportunity," Saunders advised.
Naturally, Africa varies by country when it comes to LTE rollout. Certain countries, such as Angola and Namibia, have almost reached half of the population with LTE networks already, ABI Research pointed out. Many markets have yet to begin rolling out the technology, including some of the region's wealthier countries like Botswana and Gabon.
"Part of the underlying reason for this digital divide is the different types of initiatives driving LTE rollout," said Ying Kang Tan, research associate at the company.
"We expect wholesale or shared networks such as the joint venture between the Rwandan government and Korea Telecom and the public-private partnership proposed by the Kenyan government to spur LTE deployment. While the public-private partnership has stalled, the government is considering a spectrum sharing agreement to resolve the matter," he pointed out.
"Other initiatives such as a pure LTE operator, Smile, will also introduce new dynamics into the wireless market," Tan said.
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