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S. Korea’s Population Forecast to Decline from 2032
Source: http://www.koreaherald.com
Source Date: Thursday, December 08, 2016
Focus: ICT for MDGs, Institution and HR Management
Country: Korea (Republic of)
Created: Dec 13, 2016

The rapidly aging population in South Korea is projected to start declining from 2032, the government said Thursday.

According to projections by Statistics Korea, the total population is expected to grow from 51 million in 2015 to peak at 52.96 million in 2031 before falling back to the 1990 level of 43 million in 2065.

The government applied the current rates of birth, death and population change to create the projections. 

 

The population growth rate is estimated to go into negative territory from 2032 and mark a 1.03 percent contraction in 2065, the government said.

From 2029, a natural decrease in population will begin where deaths outnumber births.

Due to aging, the working population of those aged between 15 and 64 will have seen its peak this year at 37.6 million and shrink to 20.6 million in 2065.

The proportion of the working-age group in the total population will plunge from 73.4 percent last year to 47.9 percent in 2065, the government said.

If the government’s projection becomes reality, Korea will go from the having the OECD's highest proportion of population of working age in 2015 to the lowest in 2065. 

The proportion of those aged over 65 will surge from 12.8 percent to 42.5 percent over the same period, while that of young people up to 14 will fall from 13.8 percent to 9.6 percent, it said.

The number aged between 6 and 21 is also expected to decrease to 7 million in 2025 from 8.9 million in 2015, the government said.

Aging will push up the median age from 40.9 in 2015 to 50 in 2033, and 58.7 in 2065, according to the government.

The number of youngsters and seniors, supported per 100 working-age people, will rise from 36.2 persons in 2015 to 108.7 in 2065.

Meanwhile, Statistics Korea made the first projection of Korea’s population in 100 years to be at around 25.82 million in 2115, about half the current number. The figure is similar to the current population of North Korea.

The government’s grim warning on demographic changes comes as the Korean economy is widely viewed as stuck in a trend of low growth.

According to the Bank of Korea, Korea’s growth potential has continued to fall from 4.8-5.2 percent in 2001-2005 to 3-3.2 percent in 2015-2018. BOK officials are reportedly to re-estimate the figure amid lowered labor productivity.

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